Bull Market, Bear Yen

Hey Superheroes,

What a quarter. The quarter just closed as the best quarter for U.S. equities since COVID. The S&P 500 gained 14.9% and the Nasdaq surged 21.4%, powered by semiconductor and AI-linked earnings rebound. The Dow closed above 52,000 for the first time on June 29, finishing at 52,182.74, helped by Alphabet’s debut in the index and easing U.S.-Iran tensions.

But it wasn’t all smooth sailing. The Japanese yen fell to 162.58 per U.S. dollar, its weakest level since 1986 as the persistent gap between U.S. and Japanese bond yields keeps the carry trade running despite intervention warnings from Tokyo. Japan’s Finance Minister flagged readiness to take “decisive action”, but traders have heard that before. The possibility of a carry trade unwind is considered a potential tail risk.

A quick note for the calendar: U.S. markets are closed today (Friday 3 July) for the Independence Day holiday, observed a day early. Trading resumes Monday, 6th July 2026. 

Here’s what else moved this week.

Perpetual Motion: Fund Manager Rebuffs a Billion-Dollar Advance

Perpetual (ASX:PPT) had the kind of week that keeps board members up at night. An unsolicited takeover approach, a share price surge, a rejection and a separate shareholder revolt running in parallel. All in four days.

1. The approach

Perpetual entered a trading halt on 1 July after shares lifted 16.8% to $18.10 on news of an approach “in relation to a potential change of control transaction.” The approach came from Windflower Pte, a vehicle backed by Swedish private equity firm EQT AB, valuing Perpetual at A$21.64 per share, almost 20% above the pre-halt price and the company at around A$2.5 billion (US$1.7 billion).

2. The rejection

Perpetual’s board rejected the offer as “highly conditional” and not adequately reflecting fair value for shareholders. It’s a familiar playbook, the first offer in a takeover dance is rarely the last. Whether EQT returns with a sweeter bid or walks away will define the next chapter.

3. The second front

At the same time, the Charitable Alliance representing corporate and philanthropic investors is making a last-minute push to block Perpetual’s separate, already-agreed sale of its wealth management arm to Bain Capital for up to A$550 million. Perpetual is fielding pressure on two fronts simultaneously: a take-private play for the whole group, and organised shareholder resistance to a deal it has already agreed.

What to watch

3. The next move depends on how the board plays its hand. If Bain’s deal falls over because of shareholder opposition, EQT may need to rethink its approach. But if the deal goes ahead and Perpetual is left as a standalone asset manager, the takeover price could look very different. Either way, this story isn’t over yet.

Paws for Thought: Coles’ Pet Deal Meets a Competition Roadblock

In what may be the most eventful single trading day for an ASX 200 company this week, Coles (ASX:COL) announced a potential A$4 billion acquisition and copped a regulatory block on the same day.

1. The Greencross deal

Coles confirmed on 1 July it is in discussions with TPG Capital regarding a potential A$4B pet care acquisition.The owner of Petbarn and City Vets is undertaking due diligence on a deal reportedly valued at up to A$4 billion. That’s a roughly six-fold step-up from the A$675 million TPG paid for Greencross in 2019. Coles stressed there is “no certainty that a transaction will proceed.”

2. The ACCC block

Separately, and on the same day, the ACCC blocked Coles’ proposed lease of a supermarket and Liquorland site in Kalgoorlie-Boulder, WA, finding a real commercial likelihood the new store would force at least one independent competitor out of the local grocery market. The regulator found the proposed lease raised serious competition concerns in a regional market where independent grocers play a meaningful role.

3. The market reaction

Coles shares fell 4.2% on 1 July as investors weighed capital-deployment risk from the potential Greencross deal alongside the regulatory setback. The market’s read: a $4 billion pet wellness bet is a stretch for a supermarket operator already under the ACCC’s microscope.

4. What to watch

For Coles, the appeal is clear. Pet care is one of the more resilient parts of the consumer economy, with Australians spending more than A$33 billion a year on their pets each year. But it won’t be a straightforward deal. The price tag is steep, the ACCC is keeping a close eye on competition and after Coles’ proposed Kalgoorlie lease was recently knocked back, any larger acquisition is likely to face even closer scrutiny.

Some other things we’re shining the Spotlight on:

1. Objective Corporation Loses its Biggest Client

Objective Corporation (ASX:OCL) shares fell 34.5% on 1 July after the Australian Department of Defence declined to renew a 25-year Upgrade and Support Program agreement covering roughly 140,000 users. Management said the non-renewal flattens FY26 annual recurring revenue growth from a guided 10–14% to roughly flat versus FY25, though current-year revenue and earnings are unaffected. 

2. Uranium Names Bounce into the New Financial Year

Boss Energy (ASX:BOE) jumped 13.8% on 1 July, with Silex Systems (ASX:SLX) (+7.7%), Paladin Energy (ASX:PDN) (+6.8%), Deep Yellow (ASX:DYL) (+3.9%) and Bannerman Energy (ASX:BMN) (+3.5%) also surging. Analysts attribute the move to a reversal of aggressive tax-loss selling that hit the sector into 30 June rather than any fresh company news, a classic start of financial year bounce.

Life360 Roars into end of Financial Year

Life360 (ASX:360) jumped 11–12% on 29 June as the broader ASX tech sector rallied in an end-of-financial-year rotation into growth names. The company’s Q1 revenue had risen 38% year-on-year to US$143.1 million on around 97.8 million monthly active users, and management has a US$225 million buyback authorised in May still in place.

U.S. markets are closed today for Independence Day, trading resumes Monday, 6th July 2026. Keep up to date on the markets by following us on Instagram @superheroau.