Seoul survivor, Wall Street’s comeback

Hey Superheroes,

What a week. South Korea’s Kospi triggered circuit breakers on consecutive days. Brent crude pushed back above $89. The Fed held rates again but not without a fight. By Thursday, Wall Street had staged one of its sharpest single-day recoveries of the year and Asia followed suit on Friday. A lot to unpack.

Starting with rates. The Fed voted 9-3 to hold its benchmark rate in the 3.5% to 3.75% range on 29 July, its fifth consecutive hold. The three dissenters, Beth Hammack of Cleveland, Neel Kashkari of Minneapolis and Lorie Logan of Dallas, each voted to raise rates by 25 basis points. It was the first time since September 2016 that three policymakers dissented with a unified view on direction. Market participants are now anticipating a potential hike at the September meeting.

Oil added to the pressure. Brent crude climbed 6.6% to US$89.61 a barrel on 29 July and WTI rose 6.4% to US$84.31, after reports that Iran’s Revolutionary Guard launched a missile attack on US forces in the region, with President Trump vowing retaliation.

Back home, Australia’s annual inflation rate eased to 3.8% in June, a welcome print ahead of the RBA’s August meeting. But the ASX dipped on the Fed’s hawkish hold and the oil surge, with local sentiment pulled in two directions by the domestic and global data.

Here’s what else moved this week.

Seoul survivor, Wall Street’s comeback: A week of circuit breakers and record gains

It is hard to think of a week in recent memory where global equity markets swung so sharply and so fast. Monday saw one of the worst days in Korean market history. By Thursday, Wall Street was posting records and with Asia following its lead into the weekend.

Kospi chaos

South Korea’s Kospi tumbled 10.84% on 28 July, its fourth biggest one-day fall on record, triggering the exchange’s eighth circuit breaker of 2026. Trading was halted again the following day, the first time the index has hit circuit breakers on consecutive days. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix each fell more than 13% after Chinese memory chipmaker CXMT’s Shanghai listing soared more than 400% alongside reports that China has started mass producing its own deep ultraviolet lithography equipment. The Kospi rebounded on Friday, partially recovering from the two-day selloff. The implications for the global memory supply chain are still significant.

Microsoft’s record day

Just two days later, Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) delivered the antidote. Its shares jumped 15.5% after quarterly revenue beat expectations and Azure cloud growth accelerated to 43%. The rally added around US$483 billion to Microsoft’s market value in a single session, the biggest one-day dollar gain ever recorded by a listed company. The Nasdaq climbed 2.8%, snapping a six-day losing streak. The S&P 500 gained 1.7% and the Dow rose 1.2%.

Meta’s losing streak

Not every AI giant joined the rebound. Meta (NASDAQ:META) shares fell 9% on 29 July, extending their losing streak to 11 straight sessions, the longest in the company’s history. Investors were disappointed by weaker-than-expected revenue guidance and a sharp drop in free cash flow as AI infrastructure spending ramped up. The contrast with Microsoft was stark: same sector, very different results.

What the numbers don’t tell us

Markets this week drew a clear line between AI companies delivering near-term results and those asking investors to wait for returns that are still years away. Microsoft’s Azure growth gave the market a concrete number to point to. Meta’s free cash flow decline gave bears exactly what they needed. The question heading into next week is whether Amazon and Apple can add to the Microsoft side of that ledger when they report.

Copper underpins the profit picture: Rio Tinto’s strongest half in four years

While the tech sector was pulling markets in every direction, Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO) delivered one of the strongest results of the local reporting season.

The headline numbers

Rio Tinto reported underlying earnings up 43% to US$6.85 billion for the first half, its best half-year result in four years. Revenue climbed 15% to US$31.0 billion and underlying EBITDA increased 28% to US$14.8 billion. Free cash flow climbed 75% to US$3.8 billion.

The copper story

The headline number inside the result: copper underlying EBITDA surged 84% to US$5.7 billion. Combined earnings from copper and aluminium overtook iron ore as Rio’s biggest profit driver for the first time, even as Pilbara iron ore output hit its highest first-half level since 2018.

The dividend

The board lifted the interim dividend 43% to 211 US cents a share. Rio shares rose on the result and helped push the ASX 200 toward a five-month high, providing some insulation from the global volatility playing out elsewhere.

What to watch

Rio’s copper strategy remains a primary focus for the market. The next variable is whether the Iran-driven oil price spike flows through to energy cost inflation at the mine sites, which would pressure margins in the second half. Management flagged cost discipline as a priority. The full-year result will be the test.

Some other things we’re shining the Spotlight on:

APPLE BRIEFLY TOUCHES $5 TRILLION MARKET CAP

Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) briefly reached a US$5 trillion market value on 28 July, becoming only the second listed company to hit the milestone after Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) in October 2025. Apple overtook Nvidia to become the world’s most valuable listed company a day earlier, with shares up 25% in 2026 compared with Nvidia’s 6% gain.

WEB TRAVEL GROUP JUMPS 17% ON BUYBACK

Web Travel Group (ASX:WEB) shares jumped as much as 17% on 28 July after the WebBeds parent announced an on-market buyback of up to $90 million and forecast first-half FY27 underlying EBITDA of $80 million to $86 million. The board said the current share price undervalued the company’s trading performance.

DRONESHIELD FALLS 14% ON MARGIN SQUEEZE

DroneShield (ASX:DRO) shares fell as much as 14% on 28 July despite strong revenue growth. First-half revenue jumped 74% to $125.8 million and the company secured a new $23.2 million European military contract. Gross margin eased to around 60%, down from 65% a year earlier. That was enough to unsettle investors who had priced in more.

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