Take-Two Interactive has had a year shaped by one date.
The company behind Grand Theft Auto has told shareholders to expect about 20% more net bookings in the year to March 2027. Net bookings is its measure of sales. And it has tied that growth to one launch: Grand Theft Auto VI, due on 19 November 2026.
Here’s the catch. That date has already moved twice.
Let’s look at what Take-Two has forecast, what the last Grand Theft Auto did, what pre-orders and prediction markets show, and what to watch on 9 November.
What Take-Two is
Take-Two Interactive is the New York company that owns Rockstar Games, the studio behind Grand Theft Auto, along with the 2K label and the Zynga mobile business. It is listed on the Nasdaq under the ticker TTWO. At the close on 22 October 2026 its shares were US$207.81, which puts its market value at about US$38.9 billion on the 186,980,443 shares it reported outstanding in July.
How the release date has moved
The event the market is waiting for is the release of Grand Theft Auto VI. Take-Two’s plan has moved twice. In May 2025 the company said the game, which had been expected in the fall of 2025, was now planned for 26 May 2026. In November 2025, alongside its September quarter results, it said Rockstar would now release the game on 19 November 2026. Rockstar said the extra months were to finish the game properly, and apologised for the wait.
The second move was expensive for shareholders on the day. Take-Two’s shares closed at US$252.40 on 6 November 2025 and US$232.00 on 7 November 2025, a fall of about 8%. On the 184,778,832 shares the company had on issue at the time, that is about US$3.8 billion of market value in one session. The same results release had beaten guidance and raised the outlook for the year, so the fall came against otherwise good news.
Since then the date has held. Take-Two repeated the 19 November launch in its May 2026 and August 2026 results, and Rockstar reaffirmed it when it premiered an extended preview in late August. Pre-orders opened on 25 June 2026 at US$79.99 for the standard edition and US$99.99 for the Ultimate Edition.
Why one game matters so much
Take-Two’s own guidance is what ties the company’s year to the game. In the year to March 2026 it reported net bookings (its measure of sales) of US$6.72 billion, up 19% on the year before. For the year to March 2027 it expects net bookings of US$8.0 billion to US$8.2 billion. That is about 19% to 22% more, and the company’s chief executive, Strauss Zelnick, said in May that the year would be driven by the November launch of Grand Theft Auto VI, along with strong execution across the rest of the portfolio.
Its August results list the key assumptions behind the guidance. After the economic backdrop, the next is the timely delivery of the titles in the outlook. A game that ships on 19 November lands with a little over four months left in Take-Two’s financial year. A game that moves again lands in the next one.
The first half of the year shows why the timing matters. In the June quarter of 2026, net bookings fell 3% to US$1.39 billion and the company reported a net loss of US$34.1 million. In August it forecast net bookings of US$1.62 billion to US$1.67 billion for the September quarter, with a net loss of US$140 million to US$157 million. The growth the company has guided to therefore sits in the months after the launch.
What the last Grand Theft Auto did
There is a precedent for what a Grand Theft Auto launch can do. Grand Theft Auto V arrived in September 2013.
In the year to March 2014, Take-Two’s revenue rose from US$1.21 billion to US$2.35 billion, and the company said sales of Grand Theft Auto products were about 68.9% of its revenue that year. The company said the game’s worldwide sales passed US$1 billion in its first three days, and its latest annual report puts the game’s lifetime shipments at more than 225 million units.
The same report shows how much the company has changed since: Grand Theft Auto products were 12.4% of revenue in the year to March 2026.
What pre-orders and prediction markets show
Take-Two shareholders are exposed to the launch directly. Australians who own Take-Two shares do so by trading US shares, and the company’s own filings are the primary record of what it has guided to.
Two outside measures speak to demand and to timing. On demand, analytics firm Sensor Tower told the trade press in August 2026 that about 89% of Grand Theft Auto VI pre-orders were for the Ultimate Edition. Its executive Karl Kontus said premium editions usually take around 10% to 20% of pre-orders and that he had never seen 90% of pre-orders go to a premium edition before, while noting that premium editions tend to perform well during the pre-order window because the most dedicated fans buy first. Take-Two itself has not published an edition split. Zelnick told analysts in August that the level of pre-orders was unprecedented, but that the company did not know how it would translate into sales.
On timing, the prediction market Kalshi has a contract on whether the game is released by 19 November 2026. On 22 October it was trading at US$0.94 to US$0.95, which puts the traders’ chance of the date holding at about 94%. Kalshi is a US market that is not open to Australian customers, so the figure shows only what traders expect.
The cost of another delay is the other side of this. The previous move took about US$3.8 billion off the company’s market value in a day, and the shares have not recovered their level from before it. They ended 2025 at US$256.03 and closed at US$207.81 on 22 October 2026, about 19% lower than at the end of 2025.
What to watch
The first date is Monday 9 November 2026, US time, when Take-Two reports its September quarter after the market closes. Each results release restates or updates the outlook for the year. The question for that report is whether the US$8.0 billion to US$8.2 billion net bookings range and the 19 November date are both repeated.
The second date is the launch itself, ten days later. If Grand Theft Auto VI ships on 19 November, the growth Take-Two has guided to can land inside the year to March 2027, and the next check is the December quarter report early in 2027, which will show the first weeks of sales and any change to the full-year range. If the date moves again, the outlook’s own assumption about timely delivery no longer holds, and a launch after March 2027 would fall in the following financial year.
None of this says how the game will sell or where the shares will go. It sets out what Take-Two has told its shareholders, what the last Grand Theft Auto did to its revenue, what pre-order data and prediction markets currently show, and the two dates on which those expectations get tested.
Frequently asked questions
When is Grand Theft Auto 6 coming out?
Take-Two says Rockstar Games will release Grand Theft Auto VI on 19 November 2026 for PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S. The date was set in November 2025 after two earlier plans, fall 2025 and 26 May 2026, were pushed back. Take-Two repeated the 19 November date in its May and August 2026 results.
What does the GTA 6 launch mean for Take-Two shares?
Take-Two has guided to net bookings of US$8.0 billion to US$8.2 billion for the year to March 2027, about 19% to 22% above the US$6.72 billion it reported for the year before, and says the year is driven by the launch. Its outlook assumes the titles in it arrive on time. The last time the date moved, in November 2025, the shares fell about 8% in a day.
When does Take-Two report results next?
Monday 9 November 2026, US time, after the market closes, for the quarter ended 30 September 2026. That is ten days before the planned launch of Grand Theft Auto VI.
