AMD Breaks Out 🚀

Hey Superheroes,

After weeks of pain, the ASX finally caught a break.

The ASX 200 broke its 11-session losing streak this week, clawing back ground after a 6% decline in April.The bounce was driven by a thaw in Middle East hostilities and a softer-than-expected tone from the RBA on the path ahead — even after it hiked the cash rate to 4.35% on Tuesday, the third consecutive increase of 2026.

It is now the highest cash rate since 2024, but the 8–1 vote and a hint at a possible pause saw market volatility ease. Markets are now pricing in roughly one more hike for the year, with terminal rate expectations sitting around 4.7%.

Stateside, US tech earnings have been the story — and one chipmaker (no not that one!) stole the show. Here’s what moved this week.

AMD Breaks Out: Lisa Su’s Years-in-the-Making Moment

If Nvidia has been the AI poster child, AMD has spent the last two years trying to convince Wall Street it deserves a seat at the table. This week, it did exactly that.

AMD (NASDAQ:AMD) reported Q1 2026 earnings on Tuesday, and the numbers went  past every metric the market was watching. Shares ripped 16% higher on Wednesday, hitting an all-time high of around $380.

📊 The numbers

Revenue came in at $10.25 billion, up 38% year-on-year and well clear of the $9.89 billion consensus. Adjusted EPS of $1.37 beat the $1.29 estimate. Net income nearly doubled to $1.38 billion.

The headline was the data centre business. Sales surged 57% to $5.8 billion, with CEO Lisa Su calling it the “primary driver of our revenue and earnings growth.” Demand for high-performance CPUs and AI accelerators is, in her words, “sky high.”

🔮 The guide is the story

AMD guided Q2 revenue to $11.2 billion, about $700 million ahead of consensus — a beat-and-raise that signals AMD is now seeing what Su described as “customer orders exceeding initial expectations.”

Server CPU revenue alone is expected to grow more than 70% year-on-year in Q2. The structural shift Su flagged on the call was telling: the industry is moving from one CPU per four-to-eight GPUs, to a near 1:1 ratio in next-gen data centres. CPU and GPU demand are growing together, not at each other’s expense.

🤖 Why it matters

AMD shares have more than tripled over the past year and are up 66% in 2026 alone. The Meta 6-gigawatt MI450 deployment announced in February is now in execution. Goldman Sachs and other firms raised price targets, with some calling for $450+ in coming months.

For Australian investors holding AMD via ETFs or super funds, the question is no longer whether AMD has an AI story. It’s whether the supply chain — particularly TSMC’s 3nm capacity — can keep up.

Disney’s New CEO Sticks the Landing

If AMD was a story about chips, Disney was a story about consumers — and they’re both telling the same surprisingly bullish tale.

Disney (NYSE:DIS) delivered its first earnings under new CEO Josh D’Amaro on Wednesday, and the result was a clean beat across the board. Shares jumped roughly 7%.

🏰 The numbers

Revenue hit $25.17 billion for the quarter, up 7% and ahead of the $24.78 billion consensus. Adjusted EPS of $1.57 came in well above the $1.49 estimate.

The standout was streaming. Operating income from Disney+ and Hulu soared 88% to $582 million, with margins crossing the 10% threshold for the first time. Two years after Bob Iger declared streaming would be profitable, it’s now Disney’s fastest-growing earnings stream.

🎢 The parks paradox

Disney Experiences — theme parks, cruises, consumer products — posted record Q2 revenue and operating income. Per-capita spending at US parks rose 5%, and cruise ships saw higher bookings.

But US park attendance was actually down 1%. CFO Hugh Johnston pointed to fewer international visitors and competition from Universal’s Epic Universe in Orlando. The takeaway: Disney is making more money from fewer people — a margin story, not a volume one.

📈 The guide

D’Amaro lifted FY26 adjusted EPS growth guidance to around 12% (from “double digits”), reaffirmed double-digit EPS growth for FY27, and committed to at least $8 billion in share buybacks this fiscal year. Notably, despite gas prices above US$4.50, Disney said bookings remain strong.

Even with macro headwinds, the consumer is still showing up at Disney. That’s a useful read on US discretionary spending heading into the back half of the year.

🔦 Some other things we’re shining the Spotlight on:

TABCORP CRASHES 25% ON AUSTRAC PROBE: Tabcorp (ASX:TAH) plunged 25% on Thursday after AUSTRAC opened an enforcement investigation into the wagering group’s anti-money-laundering and counter-terrorism financing controls. The regulator flagged “serious concerns” about Tabcorp’s ability to identify and manage risk — a particularly bad look given the company was hit with a then-record $45 million AML/CTF penalty back in 2017.

ARN’S $26M KYLE & JACKIE O HEADACHE: ARN Media (ASX:A1N) revealed at its AGM that $26 million of advertising revenue was lost in 2025 due to brand safety concerns linked to the Kyle and Jackie O Show. Shareholders responded by voting against the remuneration report, with more than 90% of proxy votes against — a stinging rebuke of CEO Michael Stephenson’s $1.1 million salary.

SUPERMICRO BOUNCES BACK: Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ:SMCI) jumped 18% in after-hours trading on Tuesday despite missing Q3 revenue by more than $2 billion. The market focused on a sharp gross margin recovery (up to 10.1% from 6.3%) and Q4 guidance of $11–12.5 billion in revenue — well above the $10.5 billion consensus. Revenue was up 123% year-on-year, suggesting the AI server demand story may be far from cooling.

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