Musk vs Altman

Hey Superheroes,

Markets flipped fast this week.

A last-minute ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran wiped out weeks of tension in a single move. Oil prices plunged. Risk assets rallied. Sentiment turned almost overnight.

U.S. crude oil closed down 16.4%, its largest single-day decline since 2020. 

Back home, the ASX 200 advanced 2.7% on Wednesday as the “war premium” that had weighed on markets for weeks melted away. Gold stocks led the charge with Bellevue Gold surging on strong cash flow. Tech and consumer names followed, with WiseTech and Guzman y Gomez both posting sharp gains after solid updates.

The ceasefire is fragile and all eyes are on upcoming peace talks. But for now, the mood has clearly shifted back to company fundamentals as we await the next chapter in this story. 

Here’s what investors are watching.

Musk vs Altman: The IPO battle of the century

Two of the biggest names in tech are racing to the public markets, and the question of who gets there first and provides the biggest launch is a significant event being tracked by market analysts.

🚀 SpaceX: retail investors invited to the party

SpaceX is moving closer to listing and doing something unusual along the way.

The company is planning a June IPO timeline, with investor briefings already underway. In a rare move, up to 30% of shares could be allocated to retail investors, including Australians.

At a valuation approaching US$2 trillion and a potential US$75 billion raise, this would comfortably be the largest IPO ever.

This IPO represents a rare instance where retail investors may be able to access a private company of this valuation at listing.

🤖 OpenAI: the other trillion-dollar contender

OpenAI isn’t public yet, but it’s moving fast.

The company just raised US$122 billion, the largest private funding round on record. That puts its valuation near US$852 billion, backed by some of the biggest names in tech.

Growth is just as striking. Revenue is now around US$2 billion a month, and ChatGPT has more than 900 million weekly users.

An IPO isn’t confirmed, but the direction is clear. And importantly, the company has said it plans to include retail investors when it does list.

⚖️ Who’s ahead?

It’s closer than you’d think. 

SpaceX brings infrastructure, strong cash flow from Starlink, and a loyal investor base. It also now includes xAI, adding an AI angle to the story.

OpenAI has the leading AI product, rapid revenue growth, and deep institutional backing.

Both are spending heavily, both need capital, and both are building narratives that resonate with everyday investors.

Whoever lists first may influence market sentiment regarding high-valuation tech IPOs. The race is on.

Tesla’s “sentient” moment

If SpaceX is Elon Musk’s moonshot for investors, Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) remains his most complicated relationship with Wall Street. This week offered a perfect illustration of why.

🧠 What changed

Tesla released Full Self-Driving version 14.3, which Elon Musk described as a major step forward.

The update improves reaction times, navigation and how the system handles complex or rare scenarios. It also strengthens how the AI learns from real-world driving.

📉 The market’s reaction? Muted.

Tesla stock rose just 1.1% on the day and that was largely thanks to the broader market rally on ceasefire news, not the software drop itself. Shares are down over 20% this year.

The reason is simple. This is still a Level 2 system. Drivers need to stay fully engaged. The bigger leap to true autonomy hasn’t happened yet.

Tesla’s Q1 earnings are due April 22, and with margin pressure and a softer delivery quarter already flagged, investors are waiting for something more than software updates to get excited about.

🌏 What to watch next

There are some signs of progress globally.

Tesla expects regulatory approval in Europe soon and has started trials in the UAE. Expanding internationally is key, especially with FSD now priced as a subscription.

If the global rollout accelerates, the recurring revenue math starts to get interesting depending on the adoption rates.

🔦 Some other things we’re shining the Spotlight on:

META LAUNCHES ITS AI RESET: Meta (NASDAQ:META) unveiled Muse Spark, a new AI model designed to be fast, efficient and widely deployed across its platforms. It also opens up a new paid API for developers, signalling a push beyond advertising. The stock moved higher on the news, but competition in AI remains intense.

BENDIGO BANK CUTS JOBS IN AI PUSH: Bendigo is reducing roles as it outsources key tech functions in deals expected to save $65 million a year. It’s another example of AI and automation reshaping the banking sector, with similar moves already seen across major Australian banks.

DRONESHIELD SHAKE-UP HITS SHARES: DroneShield (ASX:DRO) announced the sudden departure of both its CEO and Chairman in the same week. The stock fell sharply as investors reacted to the leadership uncertainty, adding to pressure from a broader pullback in defence stocks.

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