Ceasefire’s over, oil’s on

Hey Superheroes,

The U.S.-Iran ceasefire is over, or at least that’s what President Trump said this week. At the NATO summit in Ankara on 8 July, Trump declared the interim agreement dead and said further talks were a waste of time, after the U.S. and Iran traded fresh strikes. U.S. Central Command launched new attacks on Iran the same day, and the Strait of Hormuz is back in focus.

Oil markets reacted straight away. WTI crude rose 4.4% to settle at US$73.52 a barrel and Brent gained 5.2% to US$78.02 on 8 July, reversing weeks of optimism around rising OPEC+ supply.

On the rates front, minutes from the Fed’s June meeting showed the committee split roughly 9-9 on whether rates need to rise or hold in 2026. New Chair Kevin Warsh declined to submit a dot-plot projection, saying it is “not helpful in the conduct of policy.” A split Fed and a reignited conflict is not what markets wanted heading into the second half.

Here’s what else moved this week.

Port Hedland under pressure: BHP workers set to strike on 16 July

Australia’s biggest iron ore exporter (ASX:BHP) is facing its first major industrial action of the year. With commodity markets already jittery on the Iran news, it’s one that’s worth watching.

1. The stoppage

After six months of negotiations, workers at BHP’s Port Hedland port and maintenance operations, represented by the Combined Ports Unions (including the AMWU and ETU), gave notice of an eight-hour stoppage from 2pm to 10pm on 16 July.

2. What’s at stake

Reuters reported the stoppage could put roughly A$120 million in daily iron ore revenue at risk, with 160 to 200 of the 450 port and maintenance workers set to walk off. Unions have separately secured authorisation for further rolling stoppages on five days’ notice, meaning this could just be the start.

3. The deal next door

The Port Hedland action follows a narrow vote last week by workers at BHP’s South Flank and Mining Area C operations to approve a separate four-year deal that included a guaranteed 16% pay rise over its term. The contrast between the two outcomes highlights how different BHP’s various site-level negotiations have played out.

4. What to watch

Port Hedland is BHP’s largest iron ore export terminal. The company has not disclosed contingency export volumes for the 16 July stoppage. If the rolling stoppages are triggered, the pressure could build quickly. Iron ore prices are already sensitive to the Iran-driven macro mood, a supply disruption from the world’s largest shipper could compound that.

White flag: WiseTech founder steps down as chair

It’s been a difficult few weeks for WiseTech Global (ASX:WTC). This week brought the board change the market had been waiting for.

1. The move

WiseTech founder Richard White stepped down as executive chair on 7 July, with independent director Raelene Murphy appointed chair. White remains on the board as executive director and chief innovation officer. He’s not completely left the business, but he’s no longer running the room.

2. The market reaction

WTC shares closed up 5.7% on the news, with the market treating the move as a meaningful de-risking for a stock that had shed more than 40% from its highs partly on governance concerns. Investors welcomed the move as one governance concern eased, even if the broader picture isn’t settled yet.

3. The context

The change follows reports that the Australian Federal Police is investigating White over immigration and visa-related allegations, which he denies. White said the media attention had become “an unnecessary distraction” from the business. The AFP investigation remains unresolved, and White retains an executive role and board seat, so the governance story isn’t over.

4. What to watch

The leadership change addresses one source of the overhang, but the AFP investigation is the bigger variable. If that resolves in White’s favour, WTC recovers more ground. If it escalates, the board change becomes a footnote. Watch the investigation, not the chair title.

Some other things we’re shining the Spotlight on:

1. FAIR WORK SUES G8 EDUCATION OVER UNDERPAYMENTS

The Fair Work Ombudsman has filed Federal Court action against childcare operator G8 Education (ASX:GEM), alleging underpayment of minimum rates and overtime affecting more than 1,400 workers. The claim seeks combined compensation above $2 million. The action is a reminder that workforce compliance scrutiny in the childcare sector hasn’t eased.

2. MICRON GIVES BACK SOME GAINS AFTER EARNINGS

Micron (NASDAQ:MU) shares fell as much as 10 to 11% from post-earnings highs after the record Q3 result we covered last week. The pullback followed profit-taking and Samsung’s Q2 results, which raised questions about the sustainability of current memory prices. The long-term AI memory story is still intact, but some investors think valuations had run a little too far, too fast.

3. GENUSPLUS DENIES ROLE IN TELSTRA OUTAGE

GenusPlus Group (ASX:GNP) shares fell 8.1% after a Bloomberg article linked the infrastructure contractor to a near five-hour nationwide Telstra outage. The company stated it had no involvement with and did not contribute to the issue. A denial that lands after an 8% drop was seen as cold comfort for shareholders.

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