October 29, 2025
Nick Scali sits pretty
CSL tumbled 16% after cutting earnings guidance while WiseTech plunged 16% as regulators raided its Sydney offices in an insider trading probe.
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Market Snapshot
The ASX 200 tumbled 1% to 8,926 marking its worst session in two months after a red-hot inflation print torched rate cut hopes. Core inflation came in at 1% for Q3, well above the RBA’s forecast of 0.6%, sending bond yields higher and equities lower.
Banks and property stocks bore the brunt while CSL dropped another 4% to extend Tuesday’s sell off. The AUD edged up to US$0.66 as traders priced out near term easing.
For investors, the takeaway was clear: inflation isn’t done yet and the RBA’s Melbourne Cup Day meeting now looks like a hold rather than a cut. Global focus shifts to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate decision overnight where a quarter-point move is widely expected.
Unexpectedly red hot inflation
The inflation shock that rattled markets wasn’t just about a single number – it was a wake-up call. The September quarter print showed price pressures running hotter and stickier than the RBA expected, with core inflation at 1%. What spooked investors most though wasn’t the jump itself, but the signal that inflation is proving stubborn even as consumer demand cools.
Economists quickly redrew their forecasts. CBA and ANZ now expect the RBA to stay on hold well into 2026 while Westpac warned the latest figures could delay cuts “far beyond February.” The shift has left markets questioning whether the RBA has truly tamed the inflation beast or if it’s just been lying in wait. For investors, it’s a reminder that the path to lower rates may be bumpier, and longer, than anyone hoped.
Nick Scali’s new record high
The result:
Nick Scali jumped 12.7%, one of the strongest moves on the ASX today after the company posted an 11.6% lift in Q1 written sales orders across Australia and New Zealand. Same store sales rose 10.7% YoY while group revenue climbed 6%. Management expects first-half revenue up 7–9% on last year’s numbers.
Why it matters:
While most retailers are still battling cautious consumers and higher living costs, Nick Scali’s high end strategy appears to be paying off. The company is leaning on its premium brand and tight cost control to stay ahead of the curve – a contrast to peers like Harvey Norman and Adairs which have flagged softer demand.
Analysts called it a “strong AGM update”, though noted profit guidance of $33–35 million fell slightly short of expectations, likely weighed down by early losses in the UK arm.
What's next:
All eyes will be on the December trading period – a key test to see if Nick Scali’s strong start to the financial year can hold through the crucial Christmas and Boxing Day rush.
Lynas goes heavy
The result:
Lynas Rare Earths unveiled a $180 million expansion of its Malaysian processing plant to add the world’s only heavy rare earth separation facility outside China.
The project, funded from a $750 million capital raise, will process up to 5,000 tonnes of feedstock a year, with first production slated for April 2026.
Phase one will focus on materials like samarium and dysprosium – metals crucial for EV motors, wind turbines and defence tech – before expanding into others as commercial deals are struck.
Why it matters:
It’s a strategic play in a world racing to secure critical minerals. Heavy rare earths are small in volume but massive in importance – essential to the clean energy transition yet overwhelmingly controlled by China. For Lynas, this expansion strengthens its hand as a trusted non-China supplier and supports its “Towards 2030” growth strategy.
CEO Amanda Lacaze also said demand is strong enough for Lynas to be selective on pricing signalling confidence in the company’s ability to capture value in a tight market.
What's next:
The company still needs regulatory approvals and finalised offtake agreements before shovels hit the ground but investors will be watching closely as construction ramps up through 2025.
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